Market Behaviour in Times of Crisis: Comparing Islamic and Conventional Indices during COVID-191
Abstract
The main objective of this study is to analyse the impact of COVID-19 before and after on the conventional and Islamic Index and the volatility of S&P CNX500 Sharia with the Nifty 50. For this purpose, we cover the time duration before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. The researcher chose the breaking date of 24/03/2020 because the first lockdown in India began on that date. Johansen Cointegration Test, Granger Causality Test in the short term, and GARCH model for volatility are the major tools used in this research. The correlation coefficient between the Conventional Index and Islamic Index and S&P 500 Sharia index is low. It’s observed that NIFTY50 has the highest performance in post-Covid-19. Before Covid-19 there was no relationship between Conventional Index and Islamic Index. Lastly, the high volatility of the index is marked by the post Covid 19 being close to one.
Keywords: Covid-19, islamic Index, GARCH, granger causality test
References
- Abbes, M. B. (2012). Return asymmetries and volatility patterns during crisis: An EGARCH-based comparison of Islamic and conventional indices. The Journal of Risk Finance, 13(3), 215–234. https://doi.org/10.1108/15265941211229076
- Abdelbari, S., Yildiz, B. S., Sharkar, K., Khamliji, K., & Hoqe, H. (2021). Comparative performance of Islamic and conventional indices in emerging and mature markets using Promethee II and risk-return metrics. Journal of Asset Management, 22(3), 173–190. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41260-021-00213-7
- Abdullahi, M. (2021). Herd behavior, volatility transmission, and financial contagion in Islamic markets during COVID-19: Evidence from GMM, ARDL, and GARCH models. Islamic Economic Review, 45(2), 89–113.
- Abuhommous, A. A., & Alqaralleh, H. (2021). Wavelet-DCC-GARCH analysis of diversification potentials in Islamic markets during COVID-19. International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management. https://doi.org/10.1108/IMEFM-07-2021-0281
- Ahmed, H. (2011). Product development in Islamic banks: Challenges and options. Islamic Economic Studies, 18(2), 1–30.
- Ali, H., Haseeb, M., & Anwar, M. (2021). Comparative volatility and risk behavior in Islamic and conventional stock markets during COVID-19: Evidence from EGARCH and wavelet analysis. Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, 12(3), 419–437. https://doi.org/10.1108/JIABR-12-2020-0382
- Ali, S. S. (2015). Shariah-compliant equities: Theory and evidence. Islamic Finance Review.
- Alsayed, M. S., Al-Khazali, O. M., & Leduc, G. (2020). Efficiency comparison of Islamic and conventional indices using variance-based methods during bear markets. Global Finance Journal, 45, 100537. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfj.2020.100537
- Ansari, V. A., & Alam, M. (2021). Ethical investment performance of Islamic indices: Evidence from Fama-French and risk-adjusted return metrics. Review of Financial Ethics, 16(1), 45–64.
- Arsian Shareef, A., Kan, A., Saifulislam, M., Alli, A., Zulfaqer, M., & Farid, M. (2022). COVID-19 volatility transmission: A wavelet analysis between Islamic and conventional financial indices. Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, 13(1), 128–147. https://doi.org/10.1108/JIABR-08-2021-0244
- Asutay, M., Avdukic, A., & Wang, Y. (2019). Islamic finance resilience during the global financial crisis: Evidence from CAPM-EGARCH. Emerging Markets Review, 38, 10–28. https://doi.org/10.1016 /j.ememar.2018.11.003
- Attar, N., & Faleel, J. (2020). Philosophical and behavioral dimensions of SME preferences in Islamic financial products. Journal of Islamic Business Studies, 5(2), 103–125.
- Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., Davis, S. J., & Terry, S. J. (2020). The unprecedented stock market reaction to COVID-19. The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, 10(4), 742–758. https://doi.org/10.1093/rapstu/raaa008
- Dharani, M., & Natarajan, P. (2011). Performance of Islamic index: A comparative study of Shariah-compliant companies in India. Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, 19(2), 107–113. https://doi.org/10.1108/13581981111119526
- ElKhamlichi, A., Sharkar, K., & Arouri, M. (2014). Are Islamic stock indexes really different from conventional ones? Evidence using random walk and cointegration tests. Journal of Asset Management, 15(5), 332–342. https://doi.org/10.1057/jam.2014.18
- Endri, E., Yasid, M., & Suryadi, S. (2020). Comparative analysis of conventional and Islamic stock indices in Indonesia using Sharpe ratio and homogeneity testing. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam, 8(1), 32–43.
- Gedikli, A., Erdogan, S., & Cevi̇k, E. I. (2021). Conditional correlations and investor sentiment: Evidence from Islamic banking in Turkey during COVID-19. Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, 12(3), 388–405. https://doi.org/10.1108/JIABR-12-2020-0380
- Goodell, J. W. (2020). COVID-19 and finance: Agendas for future research. Finance Research Letters, 35, 101512. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101512
- Hazan Saka, H., Tukenmez, N. M., & Kizgin, M. (2019). Reliability of Islamic indices in bear markets: Evidence from GARCH-M and t-test analysis. Journal of Islamic Business and Economics, 9(2), 90–110.
- Irfan, M. (2021). COVID-19 pandemic shocks and Islamic equity market performance: Event study and TARCH approach. International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, 14(5), 928–946. https://doi.org/10.1108/IMEFM-09-2020-0453
- Islam, K. U., & Habeeb, M. (2020). Risk-adjusted return analysis of Islamic indices during COVID-19 using CAPM and ADF tests. Journal of Islamic Banking and Finance, 37(3), 55–72.
- Jebrana, M., Chen, Z., Zubair, S., & Taunia, M. (2021). Integration and volatility interactions between Islamic and conventional indices in Pakistan: EGARCH and cointegration approach. Review of Financial Studies of Emerging Markets, 5(1), 71–94.
- Kausar, S., & Jabeen, M. (2020). Shariah-compliant investment performance: Risk-sharing and return advantages. Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, 11(4), 837–856. https://doi.org/10.1108/JIABR-01-2020-0025
- Mzough, H., Guesmi, K., Belaid, F., & Ben Amar, A. (2021). COVID-19 and volatility transmission across sectors: Evidence from copula-GARCH models. Research in International Business and Finance, 57, 101420. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2021.101420
- Rahman, S. U., Gulzar, R., & Almonifi, Y. S. A. (2021). Islamic banking indices and policy reactions to lockdowns: Evidence from GCC. Economic Research Forum Working Paper Series, 1472.
- Rana, M. E., & Akhter, W. (2015). Interest rate volatility and performance analysis of KSE100 and KMI30 indices: GARCH-M and Sharpe ratio approach. Pakistan Journal of Commerce and Social Sciences, 9(2), 583–599.
- Saiti, B., & Abdullah, M. (2016). The impact of financial crises on Islamic and conventional indices: Evidence from wavelet coherence analysis. Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, 7(4), 324–344. https://doi.org/10.1108/JIABR-10-2014-0037
- Shaik, M., & Salisu, A. A. (2021). Hedging effectiveness of Islamic equities in times of crisis: Evidence from predictive analytics. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 57(10), 2815–2832. https://doi.org/10. 1080/1540496X.2020.1816760
- Singh, R., & Das, S. (2020). Risk-adjusted returns and volatility of SHA 50: Post-crisis performance analysis. Indian Journal of Economics and Development, 16(4), 601–610.
- World Health Organization. (2020). Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports. https://www.who.int/ emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
- Zaidi, S. W., Dhanda, R., Alam, S. M., & Ola, O. U. (2025). Inflation dynamics in India: Unraveling the role of fiscal deficit, industrial production, and oil prices. Journal of Commerce, Economics and Finance, 1(1), 69–76.
