Abstract

We investigate the perception on the severity and probability of key regulatory and financial risks within India’s pharmaceutical supply chain, drawing insights from quantitative data and stakeholder perceptions. We assess the perception on eight major supply chain risks – changing domestic regulations, changing international regulations, compliance costs, import tariff changes, export tariff changes, tax payable changes, interest rate changes, exchange rate changes. We have conducted a survey of 151 respondents involved in the supply chain function of Indian Pharma Companies. The results indicate that exchange rate changes emerged as the most critical risk in terms of severity. Import tariff changes emerged as the most probable risk in terms of probability. ANOVA analysis revealed that severity perceptions varied for changing international regulations and export tariff changes; probability perceptions varied for changing international regulations, compliance costs, export tariff changes and tax payable change. Our findings implicate the need for differentiated risk mitigation strategies. By identifying and analysing these vulnerabilities, our study offers actionable insights for pharmaceutical managers aiming to enhance supply chain resilience, safeguard product quality, and ensure timely delivery in a complex and evolving market landscape.

Keywords: Pharmaceutical supply chain, regulatory and financial risks, export tariff changes